Last Updated: 29 September 2026
We consider eight possible outcomes for government formation, from Labour winning a majority on its own, to National doing the same. We do not consider the possibility of coalitions between parties in the current government and current opposition. Every possible election result, assuming no other parties win seats and that National or Labour will lead the next government, falls into exactly one of these outcomes.
The lines show the expected party votes, and the shaded regions the 90% credible interval, for each week since the 2023 election.
The interactive histograms below show the predicted number of seats for all six parties, the plausible coalitions considered above and the total number of MPs in Parliament.
Predictions for each electorate are shown below. The button in the top right corner toggles between General and Māori electorates. These predictions do not account for the strength of individual candidates- see our methodology page for further details.
Electorate Boundaries from Stats NZ